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4/4
04:53
glassnode: BTC Whales and Sharks Incur Average Daily Losses of Approximately $337 Million in Q1, Annual Realized Losses Exceed $30.9 Billion
Svmuu News According to glassnode on-chain data, in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin "sharks" holding 100–1,000 BTC and "whales" holding 1,000–10,000 BTC realized average daily losses of approximately $188.5 million and $147.5 million, respectively, totaling around $337 million. The cumulative realized losses locked in for the year have reached as high as $30.9 billion, approaching levels seen during the 2022 bear market.
Analysis indicates that the current selling pressure stems from rising macro risks (inflation expectations, crowded AI trades, etc.) and weakening market confidence, with large holders accelerating their stop-loss exits. Meanwhile, the average daily realized losses for long-term holders (LTH) remain elevated at around $200 million, indicating that the market has not yet shown clear signs of "selling exhaustion." Institutions believe that under multiple pressures, Bitcoin still faces further downside risks, with some views suggesting a potential bottom range could be between $40,000 and $50,000. (Cointelegraph)
04:08
Tianshui Court Hears Case Involving Laundering of Proceeds from Virtual Currency Crimes: Defendant Sentenced to Two Years and Four Months for "Cash Pickup Services"
Svmuu News: The Qinzhou District People's Court in Tianshui, Gansu Province, recently heard a criminal case involving assisting others in picking up cash packages related to virtual currency. The defendant, through a "high-paying errand" part-time job, knowingly withdrew over 390,000 yuan in cash multiple times within blind spots of surveillance over a period of 7 days, despite being aware that the funds were proceeds from fraud. The defendant then converted the funds into virtual currency and transferred them to an upstream contact, profiting 21,500 yuan from the activity. The court found the defendant guilty of the crime of concealing or disguising the proceeds of crime and sentenced them to two years and four months of fixed-term imprisonment, along with a fine of 10,000 yuan. The defendant was also ordered to surrender the illegal gains.
The judge reminded the public that offline cash withdrawals have become a key link in "laundering" proceeds from telecom fraud. Activities such as "cash pickup services" and "high-paying daily settlement" are often part of the fraud chain. The public should be vigilant against actions like receiving cash on behalf of others, transferring funds, or assisting in fund transfers to avoid becoming accomplices to crimes. (WeChat Official Account of the Qinzhou District People's Court in Tianshui)
04:05
Viewpoint: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Protective Demand Reaches Historical Extreme Range, Signaling a Contrarian Long Opportunity
Svmuu News VanEck Head of Research Matthew Sigel posted an analysis on platform X, pointing out that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th historical percentile. This is typically viewed as a "contrarian long signal" during periods of extreme market risk aversion, leading to the judgment that the current market stage is suitable for establishing long positions.
The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), also managed by Matthew Sigel, has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% over the same period. This lower volatility performance was achieved through diversified allocation and a focus on profitable sectors. However, he also warned that if the massive capital expenditures by enterprises in the artificial intelligence (AI) field fail to generate corresponding returns, it could pose substantial pressure on the market, especially given the concentration of weight in S&P 500 constituent stocks.
Note: A percentile is a statistical positional concept. The 99th percentile represents a relatively extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the median level.
03:52
Tether's $500 Billion Valuation Financing Faces Cold Reception or Potential Fundraising Delay
Svmuu News Tether is pushing for investors to participate in a new funding round at a valuation of approximately $500 billion. If market demand does not meet expectations, the fundraising process may be postponed.
The report indicates that the company has been exploring financing plans since last year, but some investors remain cautious about the valuation. If this valuation is achieved, Tether's scale would surpass that of most U.S. banks, second only to JPMorgan Chase. Previously, the company discussed raising about $15 to $20 billion through a private placement, but related plans still face uncertainty. (Cointelegraph)
03:24
Nevada Court Extends Ban on Kalshi Sports Prediction Market
Svmuu News A judge in Nevada, USA, ruled that the sports prediction market products offered by Kalshi have "no material difference" from gambling activities. The judge decided to extend a previously issued temporary restraining order and also granted the state's gaming regulatory agency's request for a preliminary injunction, prohibiting Kalshi from continuing to offer related contract services in the state until the case is further adjudicated.
The injunction was initially issued on March 20th and covers prediction markets related to sports, entertainment, and elections. Regulators argue that the relevant products should be subject to state gambling regulations, while Kalshi maintains that they belong to federally regulated derivatives markets. The jurisdictional authority over such matters remains disputed. (CoinDesk)
02:42
Bitdeer Maintains Zero Bitcoin Holdings, Sells 149.7 BTC This Week
Svmuu News Nasdaq-listed mining company Bitdeer disclosed its latest Bitcoin holdings data. For the week ending April 3, its mining output was 149.7 BTC, all of which has been sold, and it currently maintains zero Bitcoin holdings.
02:41
Iran claims to have shot down an enemy MQ-1 drone
Svmuu News According to the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, on the 4th local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran shot down an enemy MQ-1 drone over Isfahan Province. (Jin10)
01:30
Svmuu Noon News
1. Prediction market nominal trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March 2026, with Kalshi leading at $13.1 billion in volume;
2. Solana launches Agent Skills, enabling AI agents to interact on-chain;
3. Anthropic announces restrictions on "freeloading" subscriptions; using Claude via OpenClaw will require pay-as-you-go or API usage;
4. Delphi Digital: Altcoin market performance diverges, with VVV leading weekly gainers at +21.87%;
5. Coinglass Q1 Crypto Market Report: Total trading volume reached $20.57 trillion, with Binane leading across multiple dimensions;
6. Japan's Financial Services Agency issues new cybersecurity rules for crypto exchanges, strengthening a three-layer protection framework;
7. US intelligence suggests Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz in the short term;
8. Addresses linked to the Drift team transferred 56.25 million DRIFT to exchanges, worth approximately $2.44 million;
9. FTX sold 6.94 million DRIFT via Wintermute, worth approximately $320,000.
00:47
March 2026 Prediction Market Nominal Trading Volume Reaches $25.7 Billion, Kalshi Leads with $13.1 Billion
Svmuu News, data analyst dash posted on X platform stating that the nominal trading volume of prediction markets reached $25.7 billion in March 2026, a month-on-month increase of 10.6% compared to $23.2 billion in February 2026. The specific data for each platform is as follows:
Kalshi: $13.1 billion (MoM +25.2%)
Polymarket: $10.6 billion (MoM +33.1%)
Crypto.com: $629.7 million (MoM +58.5%)
Opinion: $496.2 million (MoM -84.0%)
Limitless: $464.5 million (MoM +25.2%)
Predict: $329.7 million (MoM -58.0%)
Myriad: $60.4 million (MoM -51.7%)
IBKR: $41.2 million (MoM -35.0%)
Gemini: $19 million (MoM +1932.1%)
Overtime: $17.9 million (MoM +2.4%)
March 2026 Prediction Market Nominal Trading Volume Reaches $25.7 Billion, Kalshi Leads with $13.1 Billion
00:35
Polymarket Probability of "Claude Mythos Model Release Before April 30" Drops to 28%
Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Mythos model being released in April" on Polymarket has plummeted to 28%, a drop of 26% over the past 7 days, with betting volume around $42,000. The probability of "Claude Mythos model being released in June" is currently reported at 53%, with betting volume around $11,600. The contract rules for this event are: If Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or confirms it is the same model mentioned in the aforementioned leak, and that model is made publicly available by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Eligible models must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, all count), or confirmed to be the same model mentioned by Anthropic in the leak, or confirmed by consensus from credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar are not counted for this market's resolution unless confirmed to be the same model mentioned in the leak information. For the market to resolve to "Yes", the eligible model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including through open beta or open rolling waitlist registration. Closed beta or any form of private access does not meet the conditions.
Previously, Anthropic announced a ban on users subscribing for "free rides", requiring OpenClaw to use Claude on a pay-as-you-go basis or via API.
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket Probability of "Claude Mythos Model Release Before April 30" Drops to 28%
00:24
Anthropic Announces Ban on Users Subscribing to "Free Rides," OpenClaw Must Use Claude on a Pay-Per-Use Basis or via API
Svmuu News Anthropic, the parent company behind Claude, announced that starting from 3:00 AM Beijing Time on April 5th, it will cease allowing users to invoke the Claude model in third-party tools through subscription credits. AI Agent tools, including OpenClaw, will transition to a pay-per-use billing model. Related invocations must be completed using the API or require additional paid credits. Claude Code CEO Boris Cherny stated, "We have been working hard to meet the growing demand for Claude, and subscriptions were not designed for the usage patterns of these third-party tools. Capacity is a resource we manage carefully, prioritizing customers using our products and API." This move aims to "consciously manage growth and achieve long-term sustainable service."
00:19
Delphi Digital: Altcoin Market Performance Mixed, VVV Leads Weekly Gainers with 21.87% Increase
Svmuu reported that Delphi Digital posted on the X platform, stating that the performance of the altcoin market remained mixed this week, with the crypto market showing a sideways trend. The top five tokens by gains are:
• VVV (+21.87%)
• Render (+18.06%)
• Iota (+15%)
• MON (+13.33%)
• JUP (+13.2%)
Delphi Digital: Altcoin Market Performance Mixed, VVV Leads Weekly Gainers with 21.87% Increase
4/3
23:53
Solana Launches Agent Skills, Enabling AI Agents to Interact On-Chain
Svmuu News The Solana Foundation has announced the launch of Solana Agent Skills, offering pre-built functional modules that can be integrated into AI tools, allowing users to interact with the Solana blockchain through simple calls. The official skills cover areas such as error handling, security checks, confidential transfers, and version compatibility.
Additionally, over 60 community skills have been simultaneously launched, covering fields like DeFi, payments, and infrastructure, with participants including Jupiter Exchange, Raydium, Helius, dflow, and Metaplex.
22:16
Japan's Financial Services Agency Issues New Cybersecurity Regulations for Crypto Exchanges, Strengthening Three-Tier Protection Framework
Svmuu News: Japan's Financial Services Agency has released the "Policy on Strengthening Cybersecurity for Cryptocurrency Asset Exchange Operators and Other Businesses," with the core objective of protecting investor assets. It proposes a three-tier security protection system of "self-help, mutual aid, and public aid," corresponding to collaborative protection by the businesses themselves, self-regulatory organizations, and regulatory authorities, respectively.
The policy points out that besides the leakage of signature keys such as seed phrases, risks from complex attack methods like social engineering attacks and breaches of outsourcing service providers are rising, calling for an enhancement of overall defense capabilities. Simultaneously, Japan plans to incorporate crypto-related scenarios into the "Delta Wall" cross-industry cybersecurity drills to strengthen the industry's emergency response capabilities. (CoinPost)
21:48
Coinglass Q1 Crypto Market Report: Total Trading Volume Reaches $20.57 Trillion, Binance Leads Across Multiple Dimensions
According to the latest report from Coinglass, the total crypto market trading volume in Q1 2026 was approximately $20.57 trillion. This comprised about $1.94 trillion in spot trading and approximately $18.63 trillion in derivatives trading, resulting in a derivatives-to-spot trading volume ratio of roughly 9.6 times. Market activity remains predominantly concentrated in the derivatives sector.
The report indicates that Binance maintains its lead across several core metrics. Its Q1 derivatives trading volume was approximately $4.90 trillion, accounting for about 34.9% of the top ten exchanges. Its average open interest stood at around $23.9 billion, representing about 29.9% of the total. User asset holdings amounted to roughly $152.9 billion, constituting about 73.5% of the major exchanges' total. Overall, the market has formed a structure with Binance at the forefront, OKX as the core of the second tier, and other platforms distributed across subsequent tiers.
21:35
Drift team-related address transferred 56.25 million DRIFT to exchanges, worth approximately $2.44 million
Svmuu News According to Onchain Lens monitoring, since the Drift Protocol security incident, wallet addresses associated with its team have transferred 56.25 million DRIFT to Bybit and Gate, valued at approximately $2.44 million.
21:30
Svmuu Morning Brief
1. US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, exceeding the expected 60,000;
2. The White House: Trump's FY2027 budget seeks $1.5 trillion in defense spending;
3. US March non-farm payrolls exceeded The Wall Street Journal's ten-year historical forecast range;
4. Monad Co-founder releases a 10-point protocol security self-checklist, emphasizing key risks in multi-signature and permission management;
5. Corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies diverge: Nakamoto cuts holdings at a loss, Strategy remains on the sidelines;
6. HypurrFi suspected of domain hijacking, urgently advises users to suspend usage;
7. Account with over $1.5 million in profits purchases $340,000 on NBA regular season: 76ers defeat Timberwolves;
8. ZachXBT publishes "Circle Inaction Archive": slow to freeze USDC in multiple major security incidents;
9. 10x Research: Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategy may have become ineffective, dynamic allocation based on market cycles performs better;
10. Hyperliquid binary markets testnet HIP-4 has been included in the mainnet-level bug bounty program.
21:00
U.S. Stock Market Closes with Mixed Performance in Crypto Sector; TRON Surges Over 11.37%
Svmuu According to data from msx.com, the U.S. stock market closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13%, the S&P 500 up 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.18%. The crypto-related stock sector showed mixed performance, with SBET down 4.18%, MSTR down 2.4%, TRON up over 11.37%, and MARA up over 8.33%.
It is reported that msx.com is a decentralized RWA trading platform that has cumulatively listed hundreds of RWA tokens, covering U.S. stocks and ETF token targets such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, and NVDA.
20:39
FTX Sells 6.94 Million DRIFT via Wintermute, Worth Approximately $320,000
Svmuu News According to monitoring by crypto analyst EmberCN, following a security incident involving approximately $285 million at Drift Protocol, FTX/Alameda sold 6.94 million DRIFT tokens via Wintermute 6 hours ago, worth about $320,000.
Data shows that Alameda, as an investor, previously received approximately 8.33 million DRIFT tokens through vesting unlocks, valued at around $6.22 million at the time. Their current value has now dropped to approximately $380,000.
20:08
Chainlink-related addresses transferred 2.5 million LINK to Binance, valued at approximately $21.65 million
Svmuu News According to monitoring by crypto analyst Ai Yi @ai_9684xtpa, three addresses associated with Chainlink's non-circulating supply have cumulatively transferred 2.5 million LINK to Binance over the past 4 hours, valued at approximately $21.65 million.
20:04
Latest U.S. intelligence suggests Iran unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz in the short term
Svmuu News Three sources stated that U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Iran is unlikely to relax its control over the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. (Jin10)
18:28
Cosmos Ecosystem's Leap Wallet Announces Shutdown, Full Deactivation on May 28
Svmuu News Leap Wallet, a non-custodial wallet within the Cosmos ecosystem, has announced it will cease operations, with plans to fully shut down its products and services on May 28.
The shutdown encompasses the browser extension, iOS and Android mobile applications, web applications, the Swapfast trading feature, and the Cosmos Hub validator service.
Leap was initially launched in 2021 with funding from Terraform Labs. Following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, it pivoted to become a multi-chain wallet, supporting over 100 blockchain networks.
The team has reminded users that if they have delegated ATOM to Leap's validator node, they should re-delegate to other nodes as soon as possible to avoid interruptions in staking rewards and to account for the unbonding period.
The project team stated that despite closing the product, they remain optimistic about the long-term development of the crypto industry and the cross-chain ecosystem.
18:26
HypurrFi Suspected of Domain Hijacking, Urges Users to Suspend Use
Svmuu News: DeFi lending protocol HypurrFi has issued a security warning, stating that its website domain has been compromised and is investigating a potential domain hijacking incident.
The project team explicitly stated: "Do not use the hypurr.fi domain," and reminded users to avoid interacting with the platform until further notice. The team also emphasized that user funds are currently not at risk, and official social media channels remain under their control.
HypurrFi operates on HyperEVM, with a total value locked of approximately $30 million.
Analysis points out that domain hijacking is one of the common attack methods in the crypto industry. Attackers typically gain control of the front-end page to implant malicious code or wallet-draining programs. Even if the underlying smart contracts themselves are secure, users may still face asset risks.
18:24
JPMorgan: Q1 Crypto Fund Flows Drop to $11 Billion, Only One-Third of Last Year's Level
Svmuu News JPMorgan analysis indicates that digital asset fund flows in the first quarter of 2026 were approximately $11 billion, only about one-third of the level seen in the same period last year, signaling a significant slowdown in market momentum.
Annualized at the current pace, full-year fund flows could be around $44 billion, far below the historical peak of approximately $130 billion in 2025.
In terms of fund structure, the main sources of inflows this quarter were corporate balance sheet allocations (particularly from companies like Strategy continuing to buy Bitcoin) and crypto venture capital funds, while participation from traditional investors (including institutions and retail) has noticeably declined.
Furthermore, weakening CME Bitcoin futures positions reflect a shift to negative institutional demand; spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows in January, and despite some inflows returning in March, the overall trend remains weak.
The analysis suggests that the current market exhibits a structural characteristic of being "dominated by a few large funds," rather than a broad-based return of capital.
12:48
Oxford Economics: Fed May Cut Rates Twice This Year to Support Labor Market
Svmuu News Oxford Economics stated that the March employment figures in the United States significantly overestimated the strength of the pre-war labor market, as the data also reflected declines in both the labor force and household employment. As the Iran war impacts actual economic activity, employment growth will slow. The war's effect on inflation is immediate, but the negative impacts on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. Oxford Economics' baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will overlook the one-time shock from rising oil prices this year and cut rates twice to guard against any potential future weakness in the labor market. (Jin10)
12:15
Fed's Daly: The Fed Should Focus on Employment Rate, Not Employment Numbers
Svmuu News The economy no longer needs to create as many jobs as before to maintain the same proportion of the population employed. In this environment, monthly hiring data is no longer the most accurate reflection of the labor market's health. The unemployment rate might be a better measure. She stated: "Ratios and metrics such as the employment-to-population ratio, unemployment rate, quit rate, or hiring rate can reflect changes in the size of the labor force, thereby providing a clearer picture of the labor market's health." (Jin10)
12:12
Fed's Daly: Zero or Negative Job Growth Does Not Necessarily Mean Economic Weakness
Svmuu News After the release of the non-farm payroll data, Fed's Daly stated that zero or negative job growth does not necessarily indicate economic weakness, and a slowdown in labor force growth means a slowdown in job creation. (Jin10)
12:02
Reports: One crew member rescued from downed US fighter jet over Iran
Svmuu News An Israeli official and another informed source revealed to Axios that one of the two crew members from a US fighter jet downed over Iran has been located and successfully rescued by US special forces, while the other is still being searched for. Iranian authorities are also searching for the two crew members and have called on local civilians to assist in the search. This marks the first time a US military aircraft has been downed by enemy fire since the start of the war. Sources stated that both crew members successfully ejected after the F-15 fighter jet was struck by Iranian fire. US special forces have located one of the crew members within Iranian territory and rescued him alive. (Jin10)
11:40
U.S. Doubles Reinsurance Coverage for Strait of Hormuz to $40 Billion
Svmuu News The United States has doubled its commitment to provide reinsurance guarantees for vessels willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz to $40 billion, and has introduced new insurance partners including American International Group and Berkshire Hathaway. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) announced a $20 billion reinsurance program last month. The agency stated today that Travelers Insurance, Liberty Mutual Insurance, Berkshire Hathaway, American International Group, Starr, and CNA will join Chubb Insurance in providing an additional $20 billion in reinsurance support for its maritime facilities.
In a statement, DFC CEO Ben Black said, "These leading U.S. insurers bring deep underwriting expertise in marine and war risk insurance, enhancing our efforts to restore confidence in maritime trade." The agency also stated that it will work with its insurance partners to determine which vessels qualify for reinsurance. To be eligible, applicants must provide information including the vessel's origin and destination, the primary beneficial owner and their location, the cargo owner and their location, and details of the lender financing the vessel. (Jin10)
11:34
Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Strategies Diverge: Nakamoto Sells at a Loss, Strategy Holds Steady
Svmuu News Corporate Bitcoin treasury companies are diverging under sustained market pressure: Strategy is holding its massive BTC reserves steady, while Nakamoto Holdings is selling Bitcoin at a loss to adjust its balance sheet.
Nakamoto Holdings sold approximately 284 Bitcoin (at a unit price of around $70,400) in March this year, below its historical cost, raising about $20 million in total for operational funds and M&A-related investments. The company's BTC holdings have decreased to just over 5,000, accompanied by a reduction in its equity stake in the Japanese company Metaplanet, reflecting the asset restructuring of digital asset treasury companies under pressure. In contrast, while Strategy has paused purchases, it still holds approximately 762,000 BTC, maintaining its position as the corporate entity with the largest Bitcoin holdings, indicating that some companies still view BTC as a long-term reserve asset.
Furthermore, New Hampshire's proposed issuance of Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds has received a Moody's Ba2 speculative-grade rating. The issuance is expected to raise $100 million for public infrastructure construction, representing an attempt to combine digital assets with public financing. Meanwhile, digital asset management firm CoinShares has listed on Nasdaq following a merger with SPAC Vine Hill Capital, providing public market investors with access to crypto asset products and infrastructure and further advancing the development of crypto companies in the US public listing market. (Cointelegraph)

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