Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Mythos model being released in April" on Polymarket has plummeted to 28%, a drop of 26% over the past 7 days, with betting volume around $42,000. The probability of "Claude Mythos model being released in June" is currently reported at 53%, with betting volume around $11,600. The contract rules for this event are: If Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or confirms it is the same model mentioned in the aforementioned leak, and that model is made publicly available by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Eligible models must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, all count), or confirmed to be the same model mentioned by Anthropic in the leak, or confirmed by consensus from credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar are not counted for this market's resolution unless confirmed to be the same model mentioned in the leak information. For the market to resolve to "Yes", the eligible model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including through open beta or open rolling waitlist registration. Closed beta or any form of private access does not meet the conditions.
Previously, Anthropic announced a ban on users subscribing for "free rides", requiring OpenClaw to use Claude on a pay-as-you-go basis or via API.
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.