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07:40
Svmuu News CryptoQuant's analysis report indicates that internal demand in the Bitcoin market has been contracting significantly in the first three months of 2026. The overall 30-day net demand stands at -63,000 BTC. Despite accelerated institutional buying (approximately 50,000 BTC via ETFs and 44,000 BTC via Strategy), the market has seen selling of about 157,000 BTC from retail investors, old whales, and miners.
Large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have shifted from being the market's largest buyers to its largest sellers, distributing a cumulative ~188,000 BTC over the past year. Medium-sized holders (100–1,000 BTC) are still buying, but their accumulation rate has dropped by over 60% since October 2025. The Bitcoin spot price remains in the $67,000–$68,000 range, still at a ~21% premium compared to the weighted average cost of $54,286, indicating most holders are still in profit and the market has not yet bottomed.
Market sentiment and capital flows are decoupled: the Fear & Greed Index is in the Extreme Fear zone (8–14), yet ETF net inflows exceeded $1 billion in March. The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, reflecting limited participation from U.S. institutions. Geopolitical volatility (Iran conflict) has caused repeated price swings, leading market strategies to lean towards a wait-and-see approach, with overall demand slowly fading rather than panic selling.
Despite a ~47% decline from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, which is far below the 85%+ crashes seen in 2013 and 2017, Zack Wainwright points out that this reflects the Bitcoin market's gradual maturation, with volatility compressing over time.
Potential catalysts include: Morgan Stanley's approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF, which would provide access for $6.2 trillion in assets managed by 16,000 financial advisors, and the Strategy STRC preferred share product's continued monthly purchases of 44,000 BTC, potentially providing stable buying pressure for the market. Short-term technical indicators suggest that if the Iran conflict eases, Bitcoin could rebound to the $71,500–$81,200 range.
Synthesizing relevant indicators, CryptoQuant concludes: Internal demand in the Bitcoin market is contracting. Current price support relies on institutional ETFs, Strategy, and new channels continuously absorbing selling pressure from retail investors and large holders. (CoinDesk)
07:35
Svmuu News Hyperliquid ecosystem cryptocurrency trading and consumption platform Based announced on X platform the launch of a Launchpool. Based token holders can earn points through staking to participate in the Launchpool activities. It is reported that the first project in its Launchpool is Pull Fun.
07:30
1. Polymarket delists "Missing US Military Pilot" prediction market due to public controversy triggering compliance review;
2. Shanghai introduces "Ten Measures for Gaming": Supports esports companies in R&D and application of blockchain and other technologies;
3. A whale, after 5 months of inactivity, deposits 1 million USDC into Hyperliquid to go long on Brent crude oil;
4. Glassnode: BTC whales and sharks incurred average daily losses of approximately $337 million in Q1, with realized losses exceeding $30.9 billion for the year;
5. Bitcoin treasury company Hyperscale Data receives $26.6 million lawsuit settlement, increasing its holdings to approximately 633 BTC;
6. Tianshui court hears case involving laundering of illicit proceeds from virtual currency: Defendant sentenced to 2 years and 4 months for "cash pickup errands";
7. Viewpoint: Protective demand in Bitcoin derivatives market reaches historical extremes, signaling a contrarian long opportunity;
8. Tether's $500 billion valuation fundraising may face cold reception or be postponed;
9. Nevada court extends ban on Kalshi sports prediction market;
10. Bitdeer maintains zero Bitcoin holdings, sells 149.7 BTC this week.
07:07
Svmuu News According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the whale "First Set 10 Big Goals" stated that the previous long position of 2601.5 BTC opened at a price of $70,016 has been stopped out at the $68,000 level, with an estimated loss of $5.247 million.
Previous news indicated that the whale "First Set 10 Big Goals" posted on platform X showing that a long position of at least 278.406 BTC has been opened at the $67,023.8 level, valued at $18.66 million.
06:54
Svmuu News: Whale "First Set 10 Big Goals" posted on the X platform, sharing a screenshot of their long position, indicating they have re-entered a long position on Bitcoin with a limit price of $67,023.8.
Svmuu Note: This account has recently gained significant attention due to the perceived accuracy of its market predictions. However, the shared order screenshot originates from a centralized exchange, and its authenticity cannot be verified. Users are advised to exercise caution and carefully assess the associated risks.
06:40
According to the World Gold Council's central bank gold buying monthly report released this week, global central banks net purchased 19 tons of gold in February 2026. Although this figure remains below the reported monthly average of 26 tons for 2025, it represents a recovery compared to the net purchase of 5 tons in January 2026. The World Gold Council stated that the February situation appears to indicate a rebound in central bank gold purchases after a quiet January, highlighting central banks' recognition and persistence in viewing gold as a reserve asset. Furthermore, the report shows that some central banks have maintained continuous net buying records for gold, with cumulative purchases reaching 44 tons from November 2024 to February 2026. The Czech Republic reported its 36th consecutive month of net purchases. China increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month.
A Goldman Sachs research report at the end of March pointed out that, supported by continued gold purchases from central banks globally and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more this year, the medium-term outlook for gold remains solid. The gold price is expected to climb to $5,400 per ounce by year-end. UBS, also at the end of March, forecasted that the target price for gold will reach $5,900 per ounce by early 2027. (Caijing Magazine)
06:00
Svmuu News CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost posted on platform X, pointing out that a significant "institutional change" has appeared in the Ethereum derivatives market for the first time since the last bear market. On-chain data shows that ETH Net Taker Volume has shifted from a long-term negative value to a positive one, with buy-side pressure currently dominant, amounting to approximately $104 million.
Darkfrost stated that although Ethereum has been under prolonged pressure as it approached new highs, the current dominance of buy-side pressure may help form a more solid market bottom. If this trend persists and the spot market along with ETFs begin to support the uptrend, Ethereum may potentially initiate a new round of upward movement.
05:56
Svmuu News According to U.S. President Trump this week, Iran's new leadership is "more moderate and more rational." Trump and the Pentagon have repeatedly claimed that a regime change has occurred. However, most political scientists and analysts believe that so-called regime change should refer to an external force altering a country's governance, not merely replacing the leader of the system. On the contrary, the war has instead strengthened the power of Iran's hardline military factions and intensified anti-American sentiment. Mona Yacoubian, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated: "This regime is more hawkish, less inclined to compromise, and frankly, more directly linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. We saw the 'decapitation-style' removal of Iran's supreme leader at the time, but this did not translate into a significant change in the power structure or its stance towards the United States." (Jin10)
05:43
Svmuu News Polymarket has delisted a prediction market concerning the fate of a missing US military pilot, stating that the content violated the platform's "integrity standards" and should not have been launched. The platform is currently reviewing its internal approval processes. The incident has sparked widespread controversy. Previously, the market allowed betting on "whether the pilot would be rescued," with over 60% of users betting against a rescue in the short term. It is reported that US Congressman Seth Moulton has publicly criticized such trades as "disgusting," questioning the speculation on the fate of potential casualties. He stated, "American service members could be your neighbors, friends, or family, yet people are betting on whether they will be rescued."
Furthermore, Polymarket did not specify the exact terms violated, raising external questions about the transparency of its rules. Simultaneously, prediction markets are facing increasing concerns over "insider trading." Reports indicate that some traders have made precise, profitable bets ahead of sensitive military events. On the regulatory front, several US lawmakers have already called for stricter restrictions on participating in prediction market trades using non-public information. (Cointelegraph)
05:32
Svmuu News Shanghai has officially issued the "Several Measures of Shanghai Municipality to Support the Development of the Gaming and Esports Industry" (referred to as the "Shanghai Ten Measures for Games"). It states that support will be provided for gaming and esports companies in the research, development, and application of technologies such as AI large models, blockchain, big data, the Internet of Things, and cloud computing, as well as terminal equipment, game development engines, 3D modeling software, and other foundational game development tools. It will actively promote the application of blockchain technology in areas such as copyright registration, rights protection, trading, and settlement, and encourage partnerships between gaming companies and electronic device manufacturers to explore more possibilities for multi-terminal game development. (Xinmin Evening News)
05:25
Svmuu News According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale deposited 1 million USDC into Hyperliquid to go long on Brent crude oil with a leverage of 20x after 5 months of inactivity. This whale had previously realized profits exceeding $12.44 million.
05:02
Svmuu News: The Cyberspace Administration of China has issued a notice soliciting public comments on the "Management Measures for Digital Virtual Human Information Services (Draft for Comments)," proposing to strengthen the management of digital virtual human information services. It specifies that from the commencement of digital virtual human services, service providers, service users, and service providers offering network information content dissemination services should continuously display a prominent notification label containing the words "Digital Human" throughout the display area of the digital virtual human, in compliance with relevant national regulations on labeling AI-generated synthetic content. (Xinhua News Agency)
04:53
Svmuu News According to glassnode on-chain data, in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin "sharks" holding 100–1,000 BTC and "whales" holding 1,000–10,000 BTC realized average daily losses of approximately $188.5 million and $147.5 million, respectively, totaling around $337 million. The cumulative realized losses locked in for the year have reached as high as $30.9 billion, approaching levels seen during the 2022 bear market.
Analysis indicates that the current selling pressure stems from rising macro risks (inflation expectations, crowded AI trades, etc.) and weakening market confidence, with large holders accelerating their stop-loss exits. Meanwhile, the average daily realized losses for long-term holders (LTH) remain elevated at around $200 million, indicating that the market has not yet shown clear signs of "selling exhaustion." Institutions believe that under multiple pressures, Bitcoin still faces further downside risks, with some views suggesting a potential bottom range could be between $40,000 and $50,000. (Cointelegraph)
04:08
Svmuu News: The Qinzhou District People's Court in Tianshui, Gansu Province, recently heard a criminal case involving assisting others in picking up cash packages related to virtual currency. The defendant, through a "high-paying errand" part-time job, knowingly withdrew over 390,000 yuan in cash multiple times within blind spots of surveillance over a period of 7 days, despite being aware that the funds were proceeds from fraud. The defendant then converted the funds into virtual currency and transferred them to an upstream contact, profiting 21,500 yuan from the activity. The court found the defendant guilty of the crime of concealing or disguising the proceeds of crime and sentenced them to two years and four months of fixed-term imprisonment, along with a fine of 10,000 yuan. The defendant was also ordered to surrender the illegal gains.
The judge reminded the public that offline cash withdrawals have become a key link in "laundering" proceeds from telecom fraud. Activities such as "cash pickup services" and "high-paying daily settlement" are often part of the fraud chain. The public should be vigilant against actions like receiving cash on behalf of others, transferring funds, or assisting in fund transfers to avoid becoming accomplices to crimes. (WeChat Official Account of the Qinzhou District People's Court in Tianshui)
04:05
Svmuu News VanEck Head of Research Matthew Sigel posted an analysis on platform X, pointing out that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th historical percentile. This is typically viewed as a "contrarian long signal" during periods of extreme market risk aversion, leading to the judgment that the current market stage is suitable for establishing long positions.
The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), also managed by Matthew Sigel, has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% over the same period. This lower volatility performance was achieved through diversified allocation and a focus on profitable sectors. However, he also warned that if the massive capital expenditures by enterprises in the artificial intelligence (AI) field fail to generate corresponding returns, it could pose substantial pressure on the market, especially given the concentration of weight in S&P 500 constituent stocks.
Note: A percentile is a statistical positional concept. The 99th percentile represents a relatively extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the median level.
03:52
Svmuu News Tether is pushing for investors to participate in a new funding round at a valuation of approximately $500 billion. If market demand does not meet expectations, the fundraising process may be postponed.
The report indicates that the company has been exploring financing plans since last year, but some investors remain cautious about the valuation. If this valuation is achieved, Tether's scale would surpass that of most U.S. banks, second only to JPMorgan Chase. Previously, the company discussed raising about $15 to $20 billion through a private placement, but related plans still face uncertainty. (Cointelegraph)
03:24
Svmuu News A judge in Nevada, USA, ruled that the sports prediction market products offered by Kalshi have "no material difference" from gambling activities. The judge decided to extend a previously issued temporary restraining order and also granted the state's gaming regulatory agency's request for a preliminary injunction, prohibiting Kalshi from continuing to offer related contract services in the state until the case is further adjudicated.
The injunction was initially issued on March 20th and covers prediction markets related to sports, entertainment, and elections. Regulators argue that the relevant products should be subject to state gambling regulations, while Kalshi maintains that they belong to federally regulated derivatives markets. The jurisdictional authority over such matters remains disputed. (CoinDesk)
02:42
Svmuu News Nasdaq-listed mining company Bitdeer disclosed its latest Bitcoin holdings data. For the week ending April 3, its mining output was 149.7 BTC, all of which has been sold, and it currently maintains zero Bitcoin holdings.
02:41
Svmuu News According to the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, on the 4th local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran shot down an enemy MQ-1 drone over Isfahan Province. (Jin10)
01:30
1. Prediction market nominal trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March 2026, with Kalshi leading at $13.1 billion in volume;
2. Solana launches Agent Skills, enabling AI agents to interact on-chain;
3. Anthropic announces restrictions on "freeloading" subscriptions; using Claude via OpenClaw will require pay-as-you-go or API usage;
4. Delphi Digital: Altcoin market performance diverges, with VVV leading weekly gainers at +21.87%;
5. Coinglass Q1 Crypto Market Report: Total trading volume reached $20.57 trillion, with Binane leading across multiple dimensions;
6. Japan's Financial Services Agency issues new cybersecurity rules for crypto exchanges, strengthening a three-layer protection framework;
7. US intelligence suggests Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz in the short term;
8. Addresses linked to the Drift team transferred 56.25 million DRIFT to exchanges, worth approximately $2.44 million;
9. FTX sold 6.94 million DRIFT via Wintermute, worth approximately $320,000.
00:47
Svmuu News, data analyst dash posted on X platform stating that the nominal trading volume of prediction markets reached $25.7 billion in March 2026, a month-on-month increase of 10.6% compared to $23.2 billion in February 2026. The specific data for each platform is as follows:
Kalshi: $13.1 billion (MoM +25.2%)
Polymarket: $10.6 billion (MoM +33.1%)
Crypto.com: $629.7 million (MoM +58.5%)
Opinion: $496.2 million (MoM -84.0%)
Limitless: $464.5 million (MoM +25.2%)
Predict: $329.7 million (MoM -58.0%)
Myriad: $60.4 million (MoM -51.7%)
IBKR: $41.2 million (MoM -35.0%)
Gemini: $19 million (MoM +1932.1%)
Overtime: $17.9 million (MoM +2.4%)
March 2026 Prediction Market Nominal Trading Volume Reaches $25.7 Billion, Kalshi Leads with $13.1 Billion
00:35
Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Mythos model being released in April" on Polymarket has plummeted to 28%, a drop of 26% over the past 7 days, with betting volume around $42,000. The probability of "Claude Mythos model being released in June" is currently reported at 53%, with betting volume around $11,600. The contract rules for this event are: If Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or confirms it is the same model mentioned in the aforementioned leak, and that model is made publicly available by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Eligible models must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, all count), or confirmed to be the same model mentioned by Anthropic in the leak, or confirmed by consensus from credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar are not counted for this market's resolution unless confirmed to be the same model mentioned in the leak information. For the market to resolve to "Yes", the eligible model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including through open beta or open rolling waitlist registration. Closed beta or any form of private access does not meet the conditions.
Previously, Anthropic announced a ban on users subscribing for "free rides", requiring OpenClaw to use Claude on a pay-as-you-go basis or via API.
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket Probability of "Claude Mythos Model Release Before April 30" Drops to 28%
00:24
Svmuu News Anthropic, the parent company behind Claude, announced that starting from 3:00 AM Beijing Time on April 5th, it will cease allowing users to invoke the Claude model in third-party tools through subscription credits. AI Agent tools, including OpenClaw, will transition to a pay-per-use billing model. Related invocations must be completed using the API or require additional paid credits. Claude Code CEO Boris Cherny stated, "We have been working hard to meet the growing demand for Claude, and subscriptions were not designed for the usage patterns of these third-party tools. Capacity is a resource we manage carefully, prioritizing customers using our products and API." This move aims to "consciously manage growth and achieve long-term sustainable service."
00:19
Svmuu reported that Delphi Digital posted on the X platform, stating that the performance of the altcoin market remained mixed this week, with the crypto market showing a sideways trend. The top five tokens by gains are:
• VVV (+21.87%)
• Render (+18.06%)
• Iota (+15%)
• MON (+13.33%)
• JUP (+13.2%)
Delphi Digital: Altcoin Market Performance Mixed, VVV Leads Weekly Gainers with 21.87% Increase
4/3
23:53
Svmuu News The Solana Foundation has announced the launch of Solana Agent Skills, offering pre-built functional modules that can be integrated into AI tools, allowing users to interact with the Solana blockchain through simple calls. The official skills cover areas such as error handling, security checks, confidential transfers, and version compatibility.
Additionally, over 60 community skills have been simultaneously launched, covering fields like DeFi, payments, and infrastructure, with participants including Jupiter Exchange, Raydium, Helius, dflow, and Metaplex.
22:16
Svmuu News: Japan's Financial Services Agency has released the "Policy on Strengthening Cybersecurity for Cryptocurrency Asset Exchange Operators and Other Businesses," with the core objective of protecting investor assets. It proposes a three-tier security protection system of "self-help, mutual aid, and public aid," corresponding to collaborative protection by the businesses themselves, self-regulatory organizations, and regulatory authorities, respectively.
The policy points out that besides the leakage of signature keys such as seed phrases, risks from complex attack methods like social engineering attacks and breaches of outsourcing service providers are rising, calling for an enhancement of overall defense capabilities. Simultaneously, Japan plans to incorporate crypto-related scenarios into the "Delta Wall" cross-industry cybersecurity drills to strengthen the industry's emergency response capabilities. (CoinPost)
21:48
According to the latest report from Coinglass, the total crypto market trading volume in Q1 2026 was approximately $20.57 trillion. This comprised about $1.94 trillion in spot trading and approximately $18.63 trillion in derivatives trading, resulting in a derivatives-to-spot trading volume ratio of roughly 9.6 times. Market activity remains predominantly concentrated in the derivatives sector.
The report indicates that Binance maintains its lead across several core metrics. Its Q1 derivatives trading volume was approximately $4.90 trillion, accounting for about 34.9% of the top ten exchanges. Its average open interest stood at around $23.9 billion, representing about 29.9% of the total. User asset holdings amounted to roughly $152.9 billion, constituting about 73.5% of the major exchanges' total. Overall, the market has formed a structure with Binance at the forefront, OKX as the core of the second tier, and other platforms distributed across subsequent tiers.
21:35
Svmuu News According to Onchain Lens monitoring, since the Drift Protocol security incident, wallet addresses associated with its team have transferred 56.25 million DRIFT to Bybit and Gate, valued at approximately $2.44 million.
21:30
1. US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, exceeding the expected 60,000;
2. The White House: Trump's FY2027 budget seeks $1.5 trillion in defense spending;
3. US March non-farm payrolls exceeded The Wall Street Journal's ten-year historical forecast range;
4. Monad Co-founder releases a 10-point protocol security self-checklist, emphasizing key risks in multi-signature and permission management;
5. Corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies diverge: Nakamoto cuts holdings at a loss, Strategy remains on the sidelines;
6. HypurrFi suspected of domain hijacking, urgently advises users to suspend usage;
7. Account with over $1.5 million in profits purchases $340,000 on NBA regular season: 76ers defeat Timberwolves;
8. ZachXBT publishes "Circle Inaction Archive": slow to freeze USDC in multiple major security incidents;
9. 10x Research: Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategy may have become ineffective, dynamic allocation based on market cycles performs better;
10. Hyperliquid binary markets testnet HIP-4 has been included in the mainnet-level bug bounty program.
21:00
Svmuu According to data from msx.com, the U.S. stock market closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13%, the S&P 500 up 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.18%. The crypto-related stock sector showed mixed performance, with SBET down 4.18%, MSTR down 2.4%, TRON up over 11.37%, and MARA up over 8.33%.
It is reported that msx.com is a decentralized RWA trading platform that has cumulatively listed hundreds of RWA tokens, covering U.S. stocks and ETF token targets such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, and NVDA.

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