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7/14
08:57
Svmuu News: According to market reports, traders have pushed back expectations for a Fed rate hike to October.
08:56
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 83.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 16.6%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 40.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 8.6%.
08:54
Svmuu News: As consumer price data came in below expectations, traders pulled back on their bets on a Fed rate hike, driving U.S. Treasury prices sharply higher. The yield on the two-year Treasury note—which is highly sensitive to the Fed’s near-term monetary policy outlook—fell as much as 14 basis points to 4.14%, marking its largest single-day drop since February. Meanwhile, the interest rate swap market indicates that the probability of a Fed rate hike in July has fallen from over 40% to about 20%.
Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, said, “This was a broadly weaker-than-expected data release. The possibility of a rate hike in the near term has vanished. The market had previously been concerned that inflation figures would be too high, so this data should be positive for the bond market and prompt the yield curve to steepen again. Our baseline expectation is that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, and this data confirms that view.” (Jin Shi)
08:52
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Wash is optimistic about the overall economic situation. He believes the labor market is generally stable, with virtually no layoffs, and that nominal wages have also increased. The Fed chair, however, takes a more cautious view of the boom in the artificial intelligence sector. While AI has driven an increase in business investment, it has also introduced uncertainty into the economy.
Wash stated, “We are not yet clear on the extent to which the economy can benefit from the development of artificial intelligence.” “New opportunities emerging in the economic sphere also present new challenges for policymakers. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the impact of these changes on inflation and the labor market.” (Jin Shi)
08:50
Svmuu News: Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed’s mouthpiece”: June CPI data showed moderate gains across the board. Core goods prices fell for the second consecutive month, dropping 0.09%. Housing prices rose by only 0.12%. Core service prices, excluding housing, fell by 0.2%, reaching their lowest level since the pandemic began.
08:48
Svmuu News: Chip manufacturer Tower Semiconductor announced on July 14 (local time) that it will invest $3 billion to expand its chip manufacturing operations in Japan, including a $1 billion grant from the Japanese government. According to the statement, the first phase will significantly increase production capacity for 300-millimeter silicon photonics devices, with full-scale production expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027. This phase involves retrofitting the former Fab 6 facility to enable production of 300-millimeter silicon photonics devices and advanced packaging capabilities. Phase two will begin simultaneously with phase one and will include the construction of a new 300-millimeter lithography equipment manufacturing facility adjacent to the Fab 7 plant.
08:47
Svmuu News: According to Coinglass data, liquidations across the entire network reached $60.83 million in the past hour, with long positions accounting for $4.02 million and short positions for $56.80 million. In addition, liquidations for BTC totaled $28.89 million, while those for ETH totaled $20.72 million.
08:45
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Wash stated that the Fed’s top priority is to get monetary policy right—or as close to right as possible. If we choose the right policy, the surge in inflation over the past five years will become a thing of the past. My colleagues and I recognize that high inflation has been an undue burden on American households and businesses. From a longer-term perspective, underlying inflation is largely determined by monetary policy. We share a firm commitment to restoring price stability, which was the central focus of our June meeting.
The most striking feature of the current economy is business investment. Its rapid pace—which appears to be accelerating—largely reflects the construction of data centers and the massive demand for AI-related equipment and software to power them. (Jin Shi)
08:43
Svmuu News: U.S. consumer prices fell in June for the first time in six years, and a key measure of underlying inflation remained largely unchanged, which has somewhat eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% from a year earlier. The core index, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged from May and rose 2.6% from a year earlier.
The report showed that falling gasoline prices in June provided some relief to consumers as the worst of the energy price shock triggered by the Iran conflict began to subside. Federal Reserve officials are likely to welcome this data ahead of the Fed’s meeting later this month; however, the resurgence of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran has caused oil prices to rise again, which could prolong the inflationary effects of the conflict. As investors scaled back their bets on a Fed rate hike in July, U.S. stock index futures rose and Treasury yields fell. The data showed that core inflation was held in check, primarily due to falling prices for goods such as clothing and used cars. Auto insurance premiums also fell significantly. (Jin Shi)
08:42
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Wash stated that the opportunities presented by AI pose challenges for policymakers and that the Fed is monitoring the impact of AI on inflation and the labor market. (Jin Shi)
08:39
Svmuu News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, a certain whale has just converted all of its remaining ETH into BTC and has now fully shorted the ETH/BTC exchange rate, selling a total of 30,139 ETH in exchange for 859 BTC, valued at $54.09 million, with a short rate of 0.0285.
08:39
Svmuu News: Following the release of U.S. inflation data for June, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose sharply, and traders significantly scaled back their bets on a Fed rate hike.
08:37
Svmuu News: The UK government-backed Digital Markets Task Force has brought together 54 financial firms to develop real-time tokenization use cases, with the first focus being on end-to-end tokenized repurchase agreements.Members include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Barclays, Citi, State Street, Coinbase, Circle, Ripple, and Wintermute.A report supported by the UK Treasury estimates that by 2035, the tokenization market could add up to 33 billion pounds in annual output to the UK;the market for tokenized real-world assets could reach $88 trillion by 2035, with the UK potentially benefiting from up to $44 billion in additional annual economic output and $18.7 billion in annual tax revenue.The roadmap also outlines use cases for the tokenization of fixed-income securities and non-cleared over-the-counter derivatives, and recommends completing the first pilot issuance based on the UK’s Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) by the first quarter of 2027. (Bitcoin.com News).
08:37
Svmuu News: According to Gate data, following the release of the CPI figures, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices showed little short-term movement, trading at $79.76 per barrel and $85.50 per barrel, respectively.
08:35
Svmuu News: Market pricing indicates that bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month have been scaled back. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell 10 basis points on the day to 4.18%. (Jin Shi)
08:35
Svmuu News: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June fell 0.4% month-over-month, compared with economists’ expectations of a 0.1% decline; in May, it rose 0.5%; year-over-year, it rose 3.5%, compared to an expected 3.8% and May’s 4.2%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained flat in June, compared to an expected 0.2% increase and May’s 0.2% rise; Year-over-year, it rose 2.6%, compared to an expected 2.9% and May’s 2.9%. Following the release of the data, Bitcoin extended its earlier gains, rising to $63,400, up about 2% over the past 24 hours. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate hike in July rose yesterday to a high of 42% from 8% a month ago. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before Congress on the state of the economy in about 90 minutes. (CoinDesk).
08:34
Svmuu News: According to Gate data, following the release of the CPI figures, spot silver rose briefly by $2 to $59.15 per ounce. Spot gold rose briefly by $13 to $4,096.2 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell briefly by about 50 points and is currently at 100.68.
08:33
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Wash stated that the Fed has zero tolerance for persistently high inflation, that the labor market remains generally stable, that nominal wage growth is robust, and that the U.S. economy is resilient and growing steadily. (Jin Shi)
08:30
Svmuu News: The U.S. unadjusted CPI for June came in at 3.5% year-over-year, compared to an expected 3.8% and a previous reading of 4.20%. (Jin Shi)
08:27
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 63.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 36.9%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 28.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 51.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 20.4%.

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