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7/31
08:41
Fed Holds Rates Steady, But Market Odds for a September Hike Rise to 53%
The US Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates, but market expectations for a September rate hike have increased. Despite the Fed holding rates steady and offering no guidance, Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, up from previous levels, versus 46% for no change. This shift occurs even after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work, which initially led markets to view the meeting as dovish. However, three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike.
08:33
Traders expect volatility in the S&P 500 to increase as macroeconomic risks rise
Bloomberg Markets reports that traders are bracing for increased volatility in the S&P 500, anticipating that volatility will soon rise due to mounting macroeconomic risks. In recent months, the S&P 500 has remained largely stagnant overall, despite sharp fluctuations in individual sectors.
08:33
Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange Shelbit has been accused of being linked to a $4 billion Iranian sanctions-evasion network and is suspected of transferring funds to platforms such as Binance.
Reuters reported that Shelbit, a Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange, has been accused of being linked to a $4 billion Iranian sanctions-evasion network. The exchange is suspected of transferring hundreds of millions of dollars to major cryptocurrency platforms, including Binance, to provide gambling websites and sanctioned Iranian entities with access to the global cryptocurrency market. Binance responded by stating that Shelbit has never opened an account on its platform and that the associated transactions posed a low risk; however, it has investigated and frozen the linked accounts and reported the matter to law enforcement authorities.
08:24
Hassett: We will continue to take measures to curb oil prices if necessary
Hassett said that, if necessary, measures would continue to be taken to curb oil prices.
08:23
U.S. Treasury to Add Four New ETF Options for "Trump Accounts" Beyond Default S&P 500 Fund
The U.S. Treasury Department will introduce four additional U.S.-equities based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for "Trump Accounts" in the coming months. Currently, all contributions to these tax-deferred accounts for children default to the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM). The new options will include funds like the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), offering investors more diversification within the U.S. equity market.
08:23
Moonshot's KIMI Model Built on 20,000 Nvidia Chip Cluster via Alibaba
Moonshot's KIMI model has been built on a cluster of 20,000 Nvidia chips, with the infrastructure facilitated through Alibaba.
08:22
Hassett: 10-Year Treasury Yield Climb Is a Temporary Matter
Former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett believes the recent climb in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is a temporary matter.
08:22
Bybit lists GRVTUSDT Perpetual Contract in Innovation Zone with up to 20x leverage
Bybit has listed the GRVTUSDT Perpetual Contract in its Innovation Zone, with trading now open and offering up to 20x leverage. Contracts in the Innovation Zone typically incur higher trading fees.
08:22
A rebound in chip stocks and strong earnings reports from Amazon boosted U.S. stock futures, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged
U.S. stock index futures rose following a rebound in the share prices of chipmakers such as Samsung and SK Hynix, as well as strong earnings reports from Amazon. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy interest rate unchanged after the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market, causing the yen to strengthen against the dollar.
08:14
Cleveland Fed President Hammack preferred to take action at recent meeting, viewing current policy as not restrictive enough.
08:12
Morgan Stanley Cuts China's 2026 GDP Forecast to 4.6% from 4.8%
Morgan Stanley has lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8%. This revision follows weaker-than-expected economic activity in June. The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand, and ongoing property market weakness as key factors. Morgan Stanley expects policy support to remain focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, though it still anticipates modest growth improvement in the second half of the year.
08:11
Texas Stock Exchange Debuts, Aims to Compete with NYSE and Nasdaq
The Texas Stock Exchange has rolled out trading for all tickers, stepping up its drive to win business from the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.
08:08
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Prefers Incremental Policy Tightening to Combat Inflation Risk
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would rather tighten policy incrementally as more data on inflation and employment becomes available, to manage the risk of high inflation becoming entrenched. Kashkari believes a potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting and eventually concluding that bolder actions are necessary if inflation remains elevated.
08:00
The United States has imposed sanctions on the Iran-linked maritime insurance program Bitcoin, alleging that it is used to circumvent sanctions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced sanctions against two Iranian companies—Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company and HormuzSafe Maritime Services—accusing them of operating a marine insurance program that accepts Bitcoin and other digital assets.The Treasury Department stated that the program is designed to circumvent sanctions by requiring commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to purchase insurance, with the proceeds funneled to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Treasury Department stated that the scheme—including the Hormuz Safe platform—was developed by Iran’s Ministry of Economy and uses digital assets such as Bitcoin to circumvent Western sanctions. These sanctions prohibit U.S. persons from transacting with these two companies; foreign companies that transact with them also face the risk of sanctions, as do those who make payments via Bitcoin.
07:56
Citi Analyst Michael Ward Sees Ford's Stock Rally Gaining Momentum
Citi analyst Michael Ward believes Ford Motor Co.'s stock rally has significant room to continue, expressing a bullish outlook on the automaker.
07:56
Human Rights Watch Accuses Russia's Africa Corps of Killing 8 Civilians in Mali Air Strike
Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused Russia's government-controlled paramilitary group, Africa Corps, of killing eight civilians, including three children, in an air strike in central Mali. The rights watchdog reported that the attack occurred on June 15 in Kyrnia village, Mopti region. While Africa Corps claimed on June 23 to have struck a "gathering place of terrorists," HRW's investigation found no militant locations were hit, deeming the strikes "unlawfully indiscriminate." Russian paramilitaries have been fighting alongside Malian soldiers against armed groups since 2021.
07:52
Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez calls migrant surge from Morocco an 'attack', deploys military
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has described the arrival of up to 60,000 migrants in Ceuta from Morocco as a violation of Spain's territorial integrity. Spain has begun returning migrants with Morocco's cooperation and deployed its military to secure the border. The crisis has led to calls across Europe for tougher border controls and increased scrutiny of Spain's immigration policies.
07:47
Eurozone CPI Rises to 2.9% in July, Core CPI Rebounds; Probability of an ECB Rate Hike in September Rises to 85%
According to data from Eurostat, the eurozone’s year-over-year consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rebounded unexpectedly to 2.5%, while inflation in the services sector edged higher, indicating that price pressures are spreading to the broader economy.Rising energy prices were the main driver of this inflation rebound, driven by higher oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Market expectations for a September rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) (ECB) are intensifying, with the interest rate swap market pricing in an approximately 85% probability of a rate hike in September.Analysts believe that while the July data are not conclusive, they have put the ECB on a path toward a rate hike. Furthermore, the eurozone’s second-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%—which exceeded expectations—has further alleviated concerns that a rate hike might dampen economic growth.
07:42
Experts say that more consumer companies are choosing to remain private for longer periods to avoid an initial public offering
Experts point out that, with the rise of the secondary market and improved liquidity conditions, an increasing number of consumer companies are choosing to remain private for longer periods rather than going public through an initial public offering (IPO). In contrast to the IPO boom of 2021, the IPO market has cooled significantly in recent years; for example, the IPOs of two consumer companies—Jersey Mike’s and Reformation—that went public this Thursday saw lackluster performance. Analysts believe that going private allows companies to avoid the pressure of quarterly earnings reports and strict regulatory requirements, while ample capital and liquidity in the private market have also reduced the urgency to go public.
07:42
Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean: AI Has Reached the Level of an Entry-Level Engineer; Inference Hardware Is the Next Key Battleground
Google Jeff Dean, chief scientist and deep learning pioneer, stated that AI has reached the level of an entry-level engineer, and that progress in models’ ability to perform complex tasks has exceeded his expectations; AI agents can even run continuously for weeks.Dean pointed out that the efficiency of inference hardware is the core bottleneck for the next phase of widespread adoption of AI systems. If inference latency could be reduced by a factor of 50, it would give rise to entirely new application scenarios that are currently difficult to achieve, making this the next key technological breakthrough. He also advised startups to focus on context engineering, domain-specific models, and multi-agent systems capable of integrating computation during inference.

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