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9/16
21:56
Nick Timiraos: Only one Fed policymaker now projects a "long-run" rate below 3%, compared to 10 two years ago; 11 now see it above 3%
Nick Timiraos: Only one Fed policymaker now projects a "long-run" rate below 3%, compared to 10 two years ago; 11 now see it above 3%. Two years ago, when the Fed started lowering rates, 10 policymakers thought rates would eventually settle out below 3%, compared to 7 who thought rates would settle out above 3%. Two were right at 3%. Today, just one policymaker wrote down a "long-run" rate projection below 3%, while 11 think it is higher than 3%. Six think it is 3%. While it is usually hard to get worked up about the very-far-out years in the SEP, the projections for 2029, included in today's table, are notable because they show more than half of the 17 people who submitted a projection think rates will stay at or above 3.6% (the level they've been at all year, before this week's increase) to get inflation down to 2%. It underscores how risks to the long-run rate estimate are to the upsi
21:50
Lookonchain monitoring shows Garrett Jin, the largest on-chain ZEC short, is now down over $26M, holding a $51.5M short position with a liquidation price of $2,631.53.
21:49
Hong Kong stocks fell 0.8% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signaled further tightening, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.5%; China's CSI 300 Index dropped 0.2%.
21:49
Vitalik Buterin retweeted the Ethereum Foundation's post announcing that the 15th EF Protocol AMA is live on Reddit.
21:45
UK, Canada PMs Discuss AI Risks, Defence Cooperation in First Bilateral Meeting
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held their first bilateral meeting in Liverpool on Wednesday to advance cooperation on defence and artificial intelligence. The leaders agreed that governments and the tech sector must partner to ensure online safety and counter AI risks. Discussions on defence focused on reconciling competing blueprints for an allied military financing bank, with Canada applying to the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force and joining the Global Combat Air Programme as an observer.
21:33
South Korean financial authorities said the Federal Reserve's rate hike would have a limited impact on the market, as the market had already priced in the expectation.
South Korea's financial authorities stated on Thursday that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in over three years to combat inflation is expected to have a limited impact on financial markets, as the market has already priced in this expectation. South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song, Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eog-weon, and Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee attended the relevant meeting.
21:30
"New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the next 6-9 months will be a high-risk period for markets, stating he has zeroed out his AI exposure and recommends a full defensive posture.
"New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach recently stated that the market has "crossed into the difficult side" and anticipates the next 6 to 9 months will be a high-risk period, advising investors to shift entirely to defense. He has zeroed out his AI exposure in his own investment portfolio, reduced equity holdings from 40% last quarter to 30%, and shifted to equal-weighted indices. Gundlach also warned that cracks in the AI-related credit market are widening, capital expansion has reached an extreme, and the intertwined risk exposures between private credit and the insurance industry will trigger severe consequences in the next downturn. He pointed out that the S&P 500's Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has reached 42, and historically, when this indicator exceeded 35, real returns over the subsequent 10 years were invariably negative.
21:29
Nikkei 225 rose 1.0%, led by pharmaceutical and machinery stocks.
21:20
India's National Stock Exchange (NSE) IPO opens for orders Thursday, with its rich valuation a key focus
21:20
India Supplies Wall Street With CEOs But Has a Shortage at Home
Indian-born bankers have led global financial giants from Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. to Barclays Plc. Yet at home, the country’s lenders can face a string of challenges finding executives for the top job.
21:20
China’s Gas Demand Outlook Clouded by Guangdong’s Power Shift
Electricity market reforms in one of China’s economic powerhouses could herald a more sweeping slowdown in the country’s demand for natural gas.
21:17
Morgan Stanley Says Bathla Collapse Shows Need for More Credit Disclosure
Morgan Stanley researchers have suggested greater disclosures to assess credit risk tied to property developers, following the collapse of Sydney’s Bathla Group.
21:12
Gold prices rebounded to $4,288 per ounce after the Federal Reserve's rate hike, having previously fallen by 2.7%. Analysts and investment banks maintain a long-term bullish outlook.
21:12
South Korean stocks opened 0.1% higher at 6724.46 on Thursday, led by tech shares.
South Korean stocks opened higher on Thursday, with the Kospi index rising 0.1% to 6724.46 points, led by technology shares. This came despite the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in over three years, raising the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Major Wall Street indices closed lower overnight.
21:00
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin: Qwen 3.8 Flash model's performance is impressive, local models are expected to handle a large number of tasks
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted that the Qwen 3.8 flash model's performance is impressive, and llama.cpp is getting better at processing. He believes that local models will soon be able to handle a large number of tasks, and for more advanced tasks, a pattern where local models coordinate queries to powerful models to prevent personal information leakage will become feasible.
20:58
Goldman Sachs Traders' Quick Take on Fed Rate Hikes: If Q4 inflation trends remain unchanged, the Federal Reserve may hike rates more than once.
Giulio Esposito of Goldman Sachs' fixed income and equities division noted that the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike on September 16 was more hawkish than Goldman Sachs had anticipated. Goldman Sachs believes that if inflation trends do not show a substantial change in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve may pursue a more aggressive front-loaded rate hike path than indicated by the current dot plot, rather than just one more hike. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh explicitly characterized current financial conditions as "far from restrictive" at the press conference and took a strong stance on inflation, deeming it too high and persistent for too long.
20:53
Fed Chairman Warsh presided over the shortest press conference in history (approx. 30 minutes), refusing to offer forward guidance.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh held a press conference in Washington on September 16, lasting only about 30 minutes, setting a new record for the shortest regular press conference by a Fed Chair. Warsh consistently refused to provide any forward guidance on the future policy path, focusing his remarks on the decisions made at this meeting and officials' assessment of the current economic situation. This move is seen as a signal of the Federal Reserve's reshaping of its communication approach with the market. Additionally, the Federal Reserve adjusted the seating arrangements for press conferences and established a special working group to review its overall communication mechanisms, with the future of the press conference itself also facing uncertainty.
20:49
Upbit will list PayPal USD (PYUSD) and JPY Coin (JPYC) trading pairs, supporting KRW, BTC, and USDT markets.
20:44
Berkshire Hathaway is considering increasing its holdings in Japanese trading houses, according to the head of the lobby group for the firms.
20:42
U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Canada becoming a "quasi-member" of the European Union could constitute an "act of hostility," threatening to impose heavy taxes on Europe and cut some trade.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that if the European Union's proposal to make Canada its first "associate member" was ill-intentioned, the United States would impose heavy taxes on Europe and could cease trade with Europe in many respects. This follows European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's proposal to open "associate member" status to Canada to strengthen ties with Europe, as Canada's relationship with Washington deteriorates. Currently, "associate member" status does not exist in EU treaties, and its specific rights and obligations remain unclear. Any proposal would require the support of EU member states.
20:40
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted a comment on the ancient Chinese philosopher Mozi, calling his thought "proto d/acc."
Vitalik Buterin stated that Mozi's chapters 14 and 15 are an "open-source urban defense manual" designed to enhance people's defensive knowledge, thereby further shifting the offense-defense balance towards defense. He pointed out that defense is central to Mozi's philosophy, and offensive warfare is an act of exchanging small gains for great harm, thus emphasizing the importance of universal love.
20:40
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin shared an article on AI's perspective on Mozi's philosophy and modern effective altruism, particularly AI risk.
20:37
The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates one more rate hike this year, with the median interest rate of 4.1% maintained throughout 2027.
The median FOMC member predicts one more rate hike this year and maintaining a median rate of 4.1% throughout 2027. The dot plot also raised the long-run equilibrium rate from 3.1% to 3.2%, but the rate path actually written down by the members remains above this long-run equilibrium point throughout the forecast period, indicating that the FOMC is operating at a level above its nominal long-run equilibrium interest rate.
20:37
UBS: A substantial shift in Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's policy reaction function, becoming more sensitive to financial conditions and less sensitive to the labor market.
UBS's report assesses a substantial shift in Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's policy reaction function compared to his predecessors: greater sensitivity to financial conditions, less sensitivity to labor market impacts, and a higher threshold for "restrictive monetary policy." Warsh disclosed at the press conference that a strong labor market, concerning inflation trends, and geopolitical developments and their impact on energy prices were the main logical supports for this rate hike.
20:34
US Lawmakers Advance Bill to Codify Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Policy, Locking Up Forfeited Bitcoin for 20 Years
20:21
Fed Chairman Warsh hinted at a preference for another rate hike in December, stating that the current economy is strong enough.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh signaled at a press conference that the market interpreted as leaning towards skipping October and acting again in December. Warsh emphasized close monitoring of inflation trends and stated that the current economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates.
20:21
Following the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest level since July 2024, and the 10-year yield surpassed 5%.
Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, the 2-year US government bond yield jumped to its highest level since July 2024, and the 10-year government bond yield surpassed the 5% mark.
20:16
President Trump says US nearing end of war with Iran, claims direct talks with Tehran
20:16
Malaysia's Battered Bonds Face Growing Risk of Japan Fund Exodus as Yield Premium Shrinks
20:10
Gold is down 1.78% intraday, currently trading at $4,309.30.

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