Nick Timiraos: Only one Fed policymaker now projects a "long-run" rate below 3%, compared to 10 two years ago; 11 now see it above 3%. Two years ago, when the Fed started lowering rates, 10 policymakers thought rates would eventually settle out below 3%, compared to 7 who thought rates would settle out above 3%. Two were right at 3%. Today, just one policymaker wrote down a "long-run" rate projection below 3%, while 11 think it is higher than 3%. Six think it is 3%. While it is usually hard to get worked up about the very-far-out years in the SEP, the projections for 2029, included in today's table, are notable because they show more than half of the 17 people who submitted a projection think rates will stay at or above 3.6% (the level they've been at all year, before this week's increase) to get inflation down to 2%. It underscores how risks to the long-run rate estimate are to the upsi