Analysts at BMI, a research arm of Fitch, stated in a report that the Venezuelan regime is more likely to survive through a “recalibration of its behavior” rather than through a complete democratic transition or systemic collapse. They noted that the current situation remains highly uncertain, and that the measures taken over the weekend have allowed the United States to strengthen its hegemonic position in the region and secure access to oil on extremely favorable terms. Overall, a recession in the Venezuelan economy appears almost inevitable in the short term; even if U.S. investment in the oil sector increases and sanctions are somewhat eased, economic growth will remain constrained without economic and political liberalization.