Federal Reserve Cook: AI is driving massive change; in the short term, this may lead to a rise in the neutral interest rate
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Board member Cook stated that artificial intelligence has triggered a generational shift in the U.S. labor market and may lead to rising unemployment, while Federal Reserve may be unable to address this situation through interest rate cuts.Although AI will bring new opportunities, in the early stages, job displacement may precede job creation. Consequently, as the economy transitions, the unemployment rate may rise and the labor force participation rate may fall. In this scenario, even if productivity increases, any response by the Federal Reserve—should the underlying unemployment rate be pushed higher by structural factors—could risk triggering inflation.She also noted that other “far-reaching” challenges facing monetary policy include the possibility that the AI investment boom could push up the neutral interest rate in the short term. All else being equal, this could imply a need to tighten monetary policy.However, if the emerging AI economy leads to increased income inequality, or if the benefits of technological progress are concentrated among wealthier groups, the neutral interest rate may decline over time. (Jin Shi)
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