Source: The market is projected to reach $10 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
According to a report released Monday by Bank of America Citizens, annualized revenue in prediction markets has climbed from approximately $2 billion in December to over $3 billion today, and is projected to reach $10 billion by 2030. Analysts note that accelerating trading volume, strengthened market structures, and early institutional participation suggest this trajectory is mirroring the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets. Prediction markets have rapidly evolved from niche gambling into a complex ecosystem of trading platforms that aggregate probabilities of real-world events. Leading players, including CFTC-regulated Kalshi and Polymarket—which covers politics, sports, and economics—are attracting widespread attention from mainstream financial institutions and regulators. Analysts believe that asset classes typically follow a path from retail-driven liquidity to professional market makers, and ultimately to institutional capital—and prediction markets are evolving along this trajectory. Trading volume in January grew by over 40% compared to December, with February maintaining a similar growth rate. Sports events remain the primary source of liquidity, but the scope of activity is expanding to macroeconomic, political, and regulatory events—areas that better align with institutional needs. Prediction markets enable investors to hedge against the risks of discrete events—ranging from inflation surprises to M&A approvals—without relying on proxy instruments such as index futures or options, thereby reducing basis risk. By isolating specific outcomes, they provide a precise risk transfer mechanism and real-time capital-weighted probability signals. Institutional participation is beginning to emerge through data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards, and regulatory clarity; as the infrastructure matures, the volume of direct trading is expected to expand. Although current revenue primarily comes from trading, bank analysts anticipate that data, research, and financing services will drive new growth as the ecosystem evolves.
Source:富途快讯 · Source Link
Disclaimer: This content reflects only the author’s personal views and does not constitute any investment or financial advice. If you discover any content that violates regulations,Click to Report
24H Trending
-
1
Iran-linked exchange Shelbit allegedly sent $676 million to Binance in sanctions-evasion operation, Reuters reports
-
2
Analysis: The State Street Healthcare ETF (XLV) has an expense ratio of 0.08% and a diversified portfolio, while the Invesco Biotechnology ETF (PBE) has an expense ratio of 0.58% and focuses on small-cap stocks; PBE is up 10.2% year-to-date, outperforming XLV.
-
3
Analysis Compares Healthcare ETFs: Invesco Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBBQ) Saw 45.5% One-Year Return, Outperforming State Street Healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)
-
4
Analysis: Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK) up 21% YTD 2026, Outperforming Large-Cap Growth ETF (VONG) at 0.3% YTD
-
5
What Is POLA? Background and Investment Risk Analysis of the Pola On Base Project
-
6
Claiming Social Security benefits at age 62 instead of 67 can reduce monthly payments by 30%, potentially costing average retirees $150,000 over 20 years.
-
7
What Is DuckChain (DUCK)? An Analysis of Its Future Prospects
-
8
Analysis: Roundhill N-100 0DTE Covered Call ETF (QDTE) Payouts May Include Return of Capital, Trailing Nasdaq-100 Performance
-
9
The Future of Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC): Bitcoin’s Role as a Bridge and the Challenges It Faces in the Ethereum DeFi Ecosystem
-
10
Analysis: Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Down 43% From High, Q2 Revenue Up 32% YoY Driven by Prediction Markets and Equities Trading
Markets Today
Recommended Reading





