Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the Polymarket event "Israel will launch an attack on Yemen before March 31" has dropped to 25%, with a weekly decline of 29% and trading volume nearing $250,000.
The Houthis are the main armed force in Yemen that effectively controls the north. Recently, Houthi leaders publicly stated they are "ready to launch attacks at any time" and threatened to intervene in the conflict, potentially affecting Red Sea shipping. Concurrently, Israel has begun planning military deployments in the Red Sea to counter the Houthi threat, but no new round of direct large-scale airstrikes has occurred between the two sides.
Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.