Seer Channel monitoring shows that an address spent $131,050 to bet "NO" on the event "Netanyahu steps down as Israeli Prime Minister before the end of March," with an opening price of 96¢. Currently, the probability for "YES" on this event has dropped to 5%.
The probabilities for the events "Netanyahu steps down as Israeli Prime Minister before the end of June" and "before the end of December" have also decreased consecutively, currently at 18% and 43% respectively.
The total trading volume for this event has reached as high as $32.89 million. Earlier this month, influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations surrounding Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial, the market once overestimated his short-term probability of stepping down to over 70%. However, constrained by the stability of the ruling coalition and wartime conditions, the market has almost dismissed the expectation of his short-term departure, with the event's probability continuously declining for several consecutive days.
Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.