Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the Polymarket event "Crude Oil (CL) reaching $90 by the end of March" has risen to 82%, representing a 67% intraday increase; simultaneously, the probability of "Crude Oil reaching $100 by the end of March" has dropped to 36%, representing a 52% intraday decrease.
Regarding the background, Trump stated that Iran has agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and mentioned that the Strait of Hormuz might be jointly managed by multiple parties. If the relevant agreement is reached, oil prices could experience significant fluctuations; concurrently, uncertainty persists in the Middle East situation, leading to a clear divergence in market expectations for short-term oil price ranges.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.