Svmuu News: Researchers from Columbia Law School and the University of Haifa analyzed most of Polymarket's trading data between 2024 and 2026, identifying over 210,000 suspicious trades that generated $143 million in profits for "informed" traders. The study, published this month, is the first to estimate the total profit amount from suspicious accounts.

The researchers used five criteria related to trade timing and bet size to identify accounts that placed large bullish bets shortly before news releases. The study defines these behaviors as "informed" trading rather than "insider" trading, as some of the flagged large trades occurred in markets with numerous influencing factors, such as those related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Most of the top 20 most suspicious flagged trades were related to the 2024 election results, involving approximately $16 million in profits, with the remainder related to Federal Reserve decisions and sports events.

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, questioned the study's methodology, arguing that its suspiciousness ranking relies too heavily on profitability. The study's authors acknowledge that their method might over- or under-include cases and characterize the identified volume of suspicious trades as a "conservative lower bound estimate of abnormal profits."

Polymarket announced earlier this month that it prohibits trading based on "stolen confidential information" and "illegal tips," but its offshore exchange does not collect user identity information such as names, making enforcement methods unclear.