Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for "US invasion of Iran before March 31" on Polymarket has dropped to 11%, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability for "US invasion of Iran before April 30" is currently reported at 62%, up 3% in 24 hours. The trading volume for this event contract has now exceeded $42.6 million.
Today, US officials stated that the Pentagon is preparing for ground operations in Iran lasting several weeks. With thousands of US soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, this could become a dangerous new phase of the war if President Trump chooses to escalate. Officials indicated that any potential ground action would not be a full-scale invasion but could involve joint raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry units. Such missions could expose US personnel to a range of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it remains unclear whether Trump will approve or veto all or part of the Pentagon's plan.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.