Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Will Israel take military action against Iran's nuclear power plant before April 30?" has surged to 96%, representing a 51% increase over the past 24 hours.
The contract rules for this event are: The market will resolve to "YES" if Israel conducts a military strike on any Iranian power plant before April 30. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile attacks, aerial bombings, and military operations carried out by Israeli ground personnel. Cyberattacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions are not considered for resolving this market. Israeli airstrikes, missile attacks, or drone attacks that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
Senior Israeli officials have stated that Israel believes it is too early for a ceasefire and hopes that military operations against Iran can continue for at least another month.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.