Polymarket puts the probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31" at just 37%, down 9% over the past 24 hours
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, the probability on Polymarket that "the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31" is only 37%, down 9% over the past 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz("Vessel Arrivals") is equal to or higher than 60, the market will be ruled "Yes"; otherwise, it will be ruled "No."The daily number of vessel arrivals includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Ro) ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military announced that it will begin enforcing a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz; any vessel entering or leaving the blocked area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, or detained.Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed support for Donald Trump the decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, adding that his government is in full coordination with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu stated during a cabinet meeting: “Iran has broken the rules, and President Donald Trump has decided to impose a naval blockade.” ““We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.” The Prophet Channel (Svmuu Seer) continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before they are priced in.
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