Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Powell leaving the Fed Board of Governors before May 30" has plummeted, now at 9%, down 25% in 24 hours; the probability of "Powell leaving the Fed Board of Governors before December 31" has dropped to 66%, down 11% in 24 hours.
The rules for this event contract are: If Federal Reserve Chair Powell is no longer a member of the Board of Governors at any point during the target date (by 11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "No." If Powell steps down as Fed Chair but remains a member of the Board of Governors, this does not meet the "Yes" condition. The judgment is based on information released by the U.S. government, but a consensus of credible reports may also serve as the basis.
At this morning's press conference, Powell stated that after stepping down as Chair, he would remain on the Fed Board of Governors for "some time" and pledged to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent responded, saying, "If Powell remains on the Board of Governors as a Fed Governor, that would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision goes against tradition."
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing the changes before they are priced in.