Svmuu reports that Arthur Hayes has published his latest article "The Butterfly Touch," stating that the crypto bull market officially began after the US launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026. He believes Bitcoin had already completed its bottom formation near $60,000, and with the release of dollar and yuan liquidity, BTC’s return to $126,000 is a "foregone conclusion." He also predicts that after breaking through $90,000, the upward momentum will enter an accelerating phase.
Hayes pointed out that the core factors driving fiat credit expansion include three aspects: first, the US-China AI capital expenditure race, where both countries regard AI as a core national security priority, forcing the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China to maintain accommodative financial environments to support the expansion of tech giants; second, war inflation, as the US-Iran conflict accelerates the restructuring of global supply chains and the dollar system, potentially requiring the US to maintain stability through dollar swaps and relaxed banking regulations; third, the Trump administration’s political need to sustain a loose credit environment and capital market appreciation ahead of the 2028 US presidential election.