Svmuu reported that the recent剧烈波动 in the U.S. Treasury market has presented an important early test for incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Subadra Rajappa, Head of Americas Research at Societe Generale, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on May 15 that bond yield movements have shown clear anomalies due to expectations of accelerating inflation.
Rajappa noted that the surge in energy prices, triggered by the war with Iran, is intensifying inflationary pressures in the U.S. This will limit Warsh's room to push for interest rate cuts, a policy direction he previously supported and which was also demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump. She stated bluntly: "I'm starting to get a little worried because bond yields do look a bit out of control. We should seriously pay attention to the signals the bond market is sending."
Expectations in the interest rate market have also shifted rapidly. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that traders now estimate the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by December to be nearly two-thirds. Just on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel took military action against Iran, the market was broadly betting on more than two rate cuts within the year. (Jin Shi)