Svmuureports that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its historical peak in October 2025, but long-term valuation models indicate there is still significant upside potential. Based on the "Bitcoin Decay Channel" calculation of long-term trends, the conservative year-end range for Bitcoin has been raised to between $90,000 and $255,000, with the high-end scenario potentially reaching $255,000.
This model fits the logarithmic decay trend of highs and lows across previous cycles, showing that BTC's cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all approached the upper band, while bear market bottoms fell back near the lower band. Analyst Sminston stated that Bitcoin is still within a historic long-term upward channel and noted that the price range for 2027 could further expand to between $128,000 and $308,000.
Meanwhile, on-chain "HODL Waves" data indicates a potential bottom range near $65,900 to $70,500, suggesting limited downside if the market continues to weaken. Some institutions, such as Bernstein, maintain a $150,000 target for 2026, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that driven by liquidity, BTC could still reach levels above $126,000. (Cointelegraph)