Svmuu reported that CITIC Securities believes the U.S. and Iran are increasingly close to reaching an agreement, and the market has largely priced this in as a baseline scenario. After the agreement is reached, the biggest changes will be the simultaneous recovery of supply and demand, along with a rapid rebound in economic activity. Some current economic indicators are notably weak, reflecting delayed demand ahead of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Micro-level entities are waiting rather than rushing to restock or restart operations. This is an abnormal disruption. Once the agreement is signed and the Strait resumes navigation, supply and demand will return to normal. Economic activity will see significant improvement after June, and changes in macroeconomic variables will also alter the environmental assumptions for market strategies, leading to a gradual balancing of investment styles.
The reduction of holdings by large funds is nearing its end. Once the macro environment stabilizes, allocation-oriented capital will gradually return, driving a recovery in some undervalued sectors. In terms of asset allocation, continue to actively reduce volatility and restructure a barbell strategy combining AI and energy-oriented sectors. (Jin Shi)