Svmuu News: Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on platform X that the Deribit BTC index hit a low of $70,992 today, approaching the critical $70,000 mark. This level is not only a psychological threshold but also a dense area for options open interest.
Options data shows that the near-term ATM IV is around 30%, and volatility has not seen extreme panic-driven increases. The market is currently not pricing in a one-sided decline; rather, it seems to be waiting for a directional choice. Before last month's expiration, $72,000 was the GEX concentration zone. After expiration, the $70,000 strike price has become the new GEX concentration zone, with open interest clearly concentrated there. Put options below this level are noticeably more expensive, with the Skew declining overall, meaning the market is paying a higher premium for downside tail risk. The call option wall on the upside is concentrated at $80,000, $90,000, and $100,000. Long-term call positions remain relatively thick, indicating the medium to long-term bullish structure is still intact. However, in the short term, the price must first hold $70,000. If the $70,000 level is effectively defended, a decline in IV and a spot price recovery could occur in the short term. If it breaks down with significant volume, demand for protective puts could push up short-end IV, and the price may continue to test the $68,000 to $65,000 range.