Svmuureport: According to a report by consulting firm Crane Zeng, although some offshore prediction market platforms are theoretically supposed to block users from the United States, U.S. users may still be contributing a significant amount of trading activity.
The report estimates that the trading volume from U.S. users on offshore prediction markets ranges from approximately $11 billion to $34 billion, accounting for 12.5% to 31.5% of the total U.S. prediction market volume. Of this, the Polymarket platform alone may contribute between $11 billion and $27 billion in related trading volume, which the report describes as a "conservative" estimate.
The report also predicts that if the relative share between regulated and offshore markets remains unchanged, the annual trading volume from U.S. users on offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion by 2030.
The prediction market has grown rapidly over the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket being the main representatives. Although the U.S. CFTC has recently taken a more lenient stance towards domestic prediction markets, unlicensed offshore platforms are still prohibited from offering services to U.S. users. Polymarket was banned from operating in the U.S. in 2022 for failing to register its services for American customers.