Svmuu News: According to a recent report by investment bank Jefferies, although the U.S. “Clarity Act” has passed the Senate Banking Committee by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, the subsequent legislative process still faces significant resistance, and political uncertainty may exacerbate volatility in the crypto market in the coming weeks.The bill aims to clarify the boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding the regulation of digital assets and is viewed as a core legislative framework for the structure of the U.S. crypto market. Jefferies notes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will significantly boost institutional participation, while any delay would prolong regulatory uncertainty.
Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to controversies over ethics provisions, anti-money laundering reviews, and a tight Senate schedule.Analysts note that Congress has only about 20 legislative days remaining before its August recess, during which it must complete the reconciliation of the House and Senate versions, conduct procedural votes, and submit the bill to the president for signature. If progress is not made before the recess, the process could be delayed until next year or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.
Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, and will benefit the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); however, a delay could curb institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.
Furthermore, the market expects that regulatory uncertainty will continue to affect the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulatory clarity gradually emerges, intensifying competition in the stablecoin space could remain a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)