Svmuu News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X, stating that, KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae forecasts SK Hynix’s operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 at 60.4 trillion won, representing a 61% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 556% year-over-year increase, which is 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion won.
The analyst noted that the downward revision was primarily due to SK Hynix’s higher HBM sales share compared to peers, slower-than-expected price increases for standard DRAM, and the stabilizing effect of long-term supply agreements (LTAs) on ASP (average selling price). They revised their forecast for the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of the consolidated DRAM ASP for the second quarter of 2026 down to 28.9% from 50.0% previously, and lowered the growth rate forecast for commodity DRAM ASP to 34.2% from 60.6%. As mass production of HBM4 officially begins in the third quarter of 2026, the growth rate of the composite ASP is expected to return to the market average quarter-over-quarter level of approximately 10%.
However, the analyst believes this adjustment is not a sign of an industry downturn; rather, the recent revision to forecasts reflects a more realistic view of the 3- to 5-year long-term outlook (LTA) and is expected to lead to more stable long-term earnings growth, with year-over-year operating profit growth rates of 419%, 53%, and 19% for fiscal years 2026 through 2028, respectively.