Svmuu News: Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the two platforms’ combined monthly trading volume had risen to $24 billion, exceeding the average monthly wager on legal U.S. sports betting platforms; Kalshi generated $263.5 million in commission revenue last year, with annualized revenue subsequently exceeding $1.5 billion.
Prediction markets operate on a binary options exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets itself, holding positions, or assuming risk regarding event outcomes. Revenue is primarily derived from transaction fees, with other sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and market-making fees from certain platforms.
In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market in late 2025 through a $112 million acquisition of the CFTC-regulated QCEX; some states still treat prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level litigation is ongoing.
The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the nature of prediction market contracts, and classifications vary among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license.