JPMorgan Chase The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. Although the market has already priced in the possibility of an unexpected rate hike, JPMorgan Chase believes the Fed is most likely to adopt a “hawkish pause” (50% probability), which would cause the S&P 500 Index to remain roughly flat or decline by 0.5%.The bank’s analysis notes that if the Fed opts for a dovish pause, the stock market could rise by as much as 1%; whereas a 25-basis-point rate hike could cause the S&P 500 to fall by 1.5% to 2%, with technology stocks bearing the brunt of the impact.