CoinDesk Analysis: Perpetual Contracts Dominate Price Discovery on Bitcoin and Ethereum; the SpaceX Case Highlights Their Predictive Capabilities and Limitations
A CoinDesk analysis notes that perpetual futures (often referred to as “perps”) have become the primary driver of price discovery on Bitcoin and Ethereum, accounting for approximately 93% of total cryptocurrency futures trading volume and frequently surpassing the spot market.The article cites the example of SpaceX to illustrate the influence of perpetual contracts: prior to SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO at $135 per share, pre-IPO perpetual contracts for SpaceX on crypto platforms had already valued the stock at approximately $170.SpaceX opened at $161 on its first day of trading and briefly surpassed $176 during the session, validating the perpetual contracts’ accurate prediction of first-day demand.However, SpaceX’s stock price subsequently fell more than 40% from its peak, dropping below the IPO price. Analysts believe this exposed the limitations of perpetual contracts in pricing potential supply, such as the large volume of shares becoming available after the expiration of insider lock-up periods.
Source:CoinDesk · Source Link
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