HSBC states that concerns over major technology companies' aggressive spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure have become the dominant theme influencing AI-related equities. According to the bank's proprietary clustering model, the highest probability (37%) is assigned to the "hyperscaler overspend" scenario. Under this scenario, companies supplying data center infrastructure and semiconductor products are expected to outperform, while firms making the largest capital investments lag. Other significant scenarios include "AI positioning capitulation" (26% probability), where investors unwind crowded AI trades, potentially leading to a 14.3% decline in semiconductor stocks, and "China competition concerns" (20% probability).