Markets view Fed's inflation credibility with skepticism, seeing "all hat, no cattle" as 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's recent pledge to deliver 2% inflation and "not a whisper more," markets responded with a clear warning, pushing long-dated bond yields higher. The 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.64% and the 30-year to 5.2%. Bank of America economists noted Warsh's tone came across as dovish, suggesting his tough rhetoric was not matched by meaningful action. This rise in yields reflects growing fear that the Federal Reserve is not being aggressive enough with inflation, prompting investors to demand higher returns for longer-term lending. To reestablish credibility, BofA economists anticipate the Fed will hike by 25 basis points in September, followed by two more similar increases in 2026.
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