Economist Shan analyzes that the new Federal Reserve chairman, Walsh, faces a choice between "Financial Crisis 2.0" or "Dollar Crisis 1.0," and predicts he is more likely to choose the latter.

Economist aka Shan points out that the monetary policy choices of the Federal Reserve's new head, Walsh, are pushing the US economy to a critical juncture. Shan believes that Walsh will either stick to a tight policy, bursting multiple bubbles in AI, real estate, and private credit, triggering a "Global Financial Crisis 2.0" far more intense than 2008; or, under political pressure, revert to easing, leading to a systemic collapse of the dollar's purchasing power, i.e., "Global Currency Crisis 1.0". Shan judges that the probability of Walsh choosing to revert to easing and triggering a "Dollar Crisis 1.0" is overwhelmingly higher than sticking to a tight policy, because the political pressure to restart the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) will be immense during a sharp economic recession.