Market and Wall Street's outlook on the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision is divided, with Kalshi showing the probabilities of a pause and a 25 basis point hike both close to 50%.

Specifically, data from the prediction platform Kalshi shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 49%, the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 47%, and the probability of a hike exceeding 25 basis points is 2%. The outlooks from major Wall Street institutions also vary: Bank of America expects 25 basis point hikes in September, October, and December; JPMorgan Chase expects no change in September and a hike in December; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both expect no change and no further rate hikes this year; Barclays also expects no change this year; while Citi predicts no change in September, followed by rate cuts in October, December, and January of next year.