Kalshi traders now assign a 66.9% probability that the S&P 500 reaches 8,000 in 2026, after the index rallied more than 5% in four sessions. The S&P 500 is currently just 3.6% below this milestone. The recent rebound has been fueled by renewed AI optimism, strong Q2 earnings, and easing Middle East tensions. Kalshi also prices a roughly 33% chance that the S&P 500 climbs above 8,200 this year.