Analysis suggests that Intel's (Intel) stock price could fall significantly, even by nearly half, without waiting for a market crash. The analysis notes that Intel's stock is currently around $101, down approximately 28% from its 52-week high. Historical data shows that Intel's stock price fell by 45% during the unwinding of JPY carry trades in 2024, while the S&P 500 only dropped by 7.8% during the same period. Furthermore, Intel's foundry business recorded an operating loss of $2.1 billion in Q2 2026, and management expects capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion in 2026 and increase further in 2027, while also anticipating a decline in PC consumption in 2026. These factors collectively constitute the downside risks facing Intel's stock price.