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Gas prices could remain high this fall despite crude price stabilization, as Ukraine and Iran wars have tightened global refining capacity by millions of barrels per day.
The refining market remains extremely tight due to disruptions from the Ukraine and Iran wars, which have idled an estimated 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity, according to Valero COO Gary Simmons. Phillips 66 executive Brian Mandell estimates 7 million bpd is offline in Asia and the Middle East, plus 1.4 million bpd in Russia. This tightness has disconnected crude oil prices from pump prices, with U.S. gasoline currently averaging around $4.06 per gallon, up 36% from February 27, according to AAA data.
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