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Prospects for the US-Iran agreement are dim, analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz standoff continues, oil prices could surge to $120-140/barrel.
U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media on August 10, Eastern Time, demanding compensation from Iran for military conflict losses and instructing his representatives to include this demand in all future negotiations. This statement further dampened market hopes for a swift agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude to briefly surpass $90/barrel on Tuesday. Analysts from institutions such as Jefferies and Capital Economics warned that if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, the market will raise the probability of a long-term blockade, and oil prices could reach a "tipping point" in early Q4, at which point oil prices might further jump to $120-$140/barrel.
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