Analysts believe that after a roughly 80% drop from its 52-week high, car rental company Avis Budget (CAR) faces structural risks due to its high leverage and vulnerability to demand shocks.
The stock is currently trading at around $144, after falling 13% in the past month. Analysis indicates that Avis Budget's business is highly dependent on airport traffic. It finances its fleet through borrowing and then recovers funds by selling vehicles into the used car market. This structure leaves it vulnerable to pressure from both ends during demand shocks. The company's net corporate leverage ratio is 7.4x, significantly higher than its target range of 2-4x. Although management plans to use a $650 million legal settlement for debt repayment, analysts believe that its high financial and operating leverage will translate demand concerns into a decline in share price.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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