The S&P 500 has remained within 2% of its record high above 7,800 throughout August, with year-to-date gains of 12.72%. While September typically sees stock weakness, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick notes that when August ends positive and year-to-date gains are between 10% and 17.5% (as in 2026), September has historically averaged a 1.0% gain. However, Detrick cautions on midterm-election-year turbulence, identifying 7,610 as a key support level.

CNBC's Mike Santoli highlights the CBOE Volatility Index dropping below 15, calling it "eerie complacency." This comes as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated at Jackson Hole that the committee views short-term rate increases as the appropriate response to persistent inflation, with one potentially coming soon. Fed-funds futures now price a roughly 50% probability of a September hike. Macro Risk Advisors' John Kolovos also observes cautious sentime