SpaceX (SPCX) shares are trading around $141.50, down 37% from their all-time high of $225.64 reached shortly after its June 12 IPO. Analysts point to the company's Q2 2026 earnings, which, despite a revenue beat of $7.8 billion (up 92% YoY), revealed a massive $18.4 billion in capital expenditure (including $15.8 billion for AI infrastructure) and a net loss of $541 million, indicating persistent cash burn. Technical indicators also suggest the broader downtrend is set to resume, while the lockup expiry on August 6, which made 911.5 million shares eligible to trade, adds supply pressure. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens maintains a fair value estimate of $62, while former Fidelity manager George Noble sees fair value around $30 per share.