Analysis indicates that the 30-year US Treasury yield has surged by approximately 10 basis points from its low last Friday, with half of that increase occurring on Monday, now approaching 5.27%. This rise is primarily driven by an increase in real yields, rather than inflation expectations.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh warned last Friday at the Jackson Hole conference that inflation remains too high, but analysis suggests that long-term inflation expectations have barely changed, and the rise in real yields (yields after deducting inflation expectations) is the main reason driving the increase in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields. Investors are demanding higher returns to hold long-term U.S. Treasuries, which may be related to economic growth expectations, Federal Reserve policy, substantial government borrowing, and the term premium on long-term bonds. Warsh stated last Friday that it is difficult to call broad financial conditions restrictive. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also pointed out on Sunday that the Treasury can stabilize disorderly markets but cannot determine the ultimate level of yields.
Source:Yahoo财经 · Source Link
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