The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive time but warned that tariff wars pose an upside risk to inflation. 63% of analysts are betting on a rate hike in the first half of 2027.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting on September 2. In its statement, the central bank noted that the evolution of the economy and inflation was "broadly in line" with its July projections, but "upside risks to inflation have increased, and new tariffs make the growth outlook more uncertain." Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the rebound in economic growth has put the central bank "on a more solid footing," but "uncertainty about the sustainability of the rebound has increased with new trade actions by the United States." Following the decision, Canadian short-term government bonds were sold off, with the two-year government bond yield rising to a high of 3.048%, and the Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.3847 per US dollar. A Bloomberg survey showed that 63% of analysts expect the central bank to raise interest rates in the first half of 2027, consistent with pricing in the overnight swap market.
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