China Merchants Securities' latest research report indicates that the El Niño phenomenon has already impacted supply chains through two main channels: first, by increasing aquaculture feed costs due to reduced fishmeal catches in Peru, and second, by further tightening navigation restrictions in the Panama Canal due to water level pressure. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a more than 90% probability of an extremely strong El Niño occurring in the Northern Hemisphere during the autumn and winter of 2026. The report suggests that the capital market has not yet formed a unified "El Niño trade." While stock prices in the livestock farming and shipping sectors have already priced in some expectations, the focus will now shift to whether industry profitability can sustain these gains.