Wall Street broadly expects the Federal Reserve to need to raise interest rates after a strong U.S. August non-farm payrolls report, with Macquarie bringing forward its rate hike forecast to September.
Following a robust U.S. August non-farm payrolls report (162,000 new jobs, significantly exceeding expectations) and a surge in government bond yields, Wall Street analysts widely believe the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, noted that the Federal Reserve might be "behind the curve" and needs to raise rates to reinforce its credibility. R.J. Gallo, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at Federated Hermes, also believes the Federal Reserve is inclined to hike rates. Macquarie analysts have brought forward their expectation for a Federal Reserve rate hike from December to September, and anticipate another hike in the first quarter of 2027. Currently, Polymarket bets show a 53% probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates at its September 15-16 meeting, and a 48% probability of maintaining current rates.
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