Goldman Sachs strategist Lee Coppersmith's research report indicates that the core variable for the U.S. stock market's direction in the coming week will be AI catalysts, not inflation data, potentially driving a "right-tail" event.
Coppersmith believes that the launch of OpenAI's flagship new model, Astra, the Goldman Sachs Communacopia+ Technology Conference (where OpenAI will take the stage at 9:30 AM PT on Tuesday), and the current extremely compressed positioning levels collectively form a "coiled spring" market dynamic. He points out that the net leverage of US fundamental long/short hedge funds is only in the 4th percentile over the past year, and the implied volatility for semiconductors (VXSMH) has plummeted from approximately 65 in July to 36. The market is pricing in volatility with unusual complacency, yet it faces a dense series of catalysts. The Goldman Sachs research team maintains its view of upward revisions to AI capital expenditures, expecting computing demand to continue outstripping supply until 2028.
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Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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