Morgan Stanley analysis indicates that tech giants are seeing substantial returns on investment in AI, with model companies leveraging their own computing power to provide API services achieving the highest return on invested capital (ROIC) of up to 46%. The firm projects that the combined operating cash flow of the four major giants—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—will increase from $739 billion in 2026 to $1.23 trillion in 2028, while new debt financing requirements will significantly decrease during the same period.

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley anticipates that the growth rate of data center capital expenditure for the four hyperscale cloud providers will peak at approximately 60% in 2027 before sharply declining to about 12% in 2028. This suggests that AI investment is shifting from the computing power build-out phase to the commercialization and monetization phase, with market focus moving from data center construction to the ability to convert computing power into revenue and profit.