JPMorgan Chase: We do not recommend simply shorting the US dollar. A better option is to go long on the US dollar and short low-yielding currencies such as the Swedish Krona, New Zealand Dollar, and Canadian Dollar.
JPMorgan Chase's latest analysis indicates that the U.S. dollar offers strong real yield protection in a global inflationary environment, with the U.S. real policy rate close to 2%. The dollar's yield advantage over other global currencies is at a nearly four-decade high, and it is estimated to be undervalued by approximately 3% to 4% against its fair value. The bank recommends going long on the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market and shorting currencies with low real yields and sensitivity to economic cycles, such as the Swedish Krona (SEK), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Japanese Yen is a major exception, as potential rebalancing by Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) and normalization of Bank of Japan policy could generate buying interest.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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