Analysts: US stock corporate earnings expectations are experiencing a rare sustained upward revision, with fundamentals "too strong to be true," but high interest rates and Federal Reserve decisions still pose a drag.

Patrick Palfrey, Head of Strategy at Seaport Research Partners, noted that the current fundamentals of U.S. corporate earnings are exceptionally strong, with analysts' earnings expectations continuously revised upwards. This situation is historically rare, "almost beyond the realm of normal possibility." He believes that S&P 500 component companies saw a 55% year-over-year jump in second-quarter EPS, still growing 35% after excluding unrealized gains. However, the market has underreacted to this positive news, with the high-interest-rate environment suppressing valuations and investors questioning the sustainability of earnings.

Palfrey specifically pointed out that the fundamentals of industrial and transportation stocks are accelerating their improvement, but their stock prices have not yet seen corresponding returns, indicating clear mispricing opportunities. He warned that if the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week re-emphasizes the necessity of rate hikes, it could pose a short-term shock to the stock market, even though the market has already priced in approximately a 60% probability of a hike.