Lombard Global Macro Research points out that the structural capital flow of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world's largest pension fund, accelerating its return to domestic Japanese bonds, will push USD/JPY below 150 and towards its fair value range of 130-140. The firm warns that the risk of passive deleveraging in global carry trades has not been fully priced in by the market. Rising JPY volatility could force concentrated deleveraging of cross-asset carry positions, escalating a JPY rebound into a broader volatility event.