Wall Street Insights Analysis: Structural Shift in JPY May Trigger Unwinding of Carry Trades, USD/JPY Fair Value Could Point to 130-140 Range
Wallstreetcn analysis indicates that the Japanese Yen is undergoing a structural shift, with the long-standing divergence between the narrowing 10-year US-Japan government bond yield spread and the USD/JPY exchange rate now correcting. TS Lombard believes that the core drivers are the Bank of Japan's accelerated tightening, increased political tolerance for Yen appreciation, and a reversal of Japanese capital outflows. Their fair value model points to a reasonable range of 130 to 140 for USD/JPY. Should the Yen's shift accelerate, the unwinding of large-scale carry trades could trigger a systemic increase in cross-asset volatility and push up bond yields in the US and Europe.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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